Phil Mirzoev's blog

Friday, February 17, 2023

Europe Is Walking On the Edge of Nuclear Abyss: it still has time and agency to avoid a catastrophe, but not too much

Europe Is Walking On the Edge of Nuclear Abyss: it still has time and agency to avoid a catastrophe, but not too much.

I keep hearing many people asking similar questions about the nuclear escalation between Russia and the US. Some people, and even academic scholars consider only Ukraine as the focal point of the possible nuclear escalation on the part of Russia.

Again and again I see more and more evidence that many of these people are completely missing the context and trying to find nuclear risks in the wrong spot, in my view.

Just to capture lots of similar questions, I will share my humble view on the subject of nuclear escalation and I hasten to add that it is only my view, it can be partially wrong, or only partially correct.

Well, be it Russia or the US, or China for that matter - all of them aren’t so irrational as to self-destroyingly start a world apocalypse in a situation where clearly it can be avoided.

A nuclear attack from Russia on America or from America on Russia does predictably lead to a result whereby everybody loses, existentially loses..

But EUROPE - that’s a completely different matter. Europe with its involvement in the NATO adventurism of waging a proxy-war with Russia is really (sleep-) walking on the edge of an abyss - nuclear abyss. The main reason behind it is because Russia actually doesn't run too much existential risk to itself in the scenario of launching a "limited" nuclear attack on Europe for military objectives only.

It is not surprising that this subject may make one sick to one's stomach even to think about, and that's why Europeans may have lost sight of what really their governments do or don't do in the international affairs. But it is really important for Europe to delve into this subject to avoid most terrible consequences and avoid being led down the primrose path by the Anglo-West.

If European involvement, especially countries like Poland in the transfer of arms and other resources to Ukraine, in the eyes of Moscow can put at risk the outcome of its war with Ukraine or just exact too high a price to win, Russia can hit Europe with tactical or not-so-tactical nuclear weapons (GOD FORBID!!): for example it could hit Poland after issuing an ultimatum calling for it to stop any supplies to Ukraine. Everything should be done by Europe, especially Germany, to prevent this sickening outcome.

Moscow knows that Washington knows that Moscow knows etc.. that Moscow’s nuclear strikes against military capabilities and infrastructure in Europe wouldn't be aimed at the US and wouldn’t pose any direct threat to the US. The US, in its turn, is not going to self-destroy by launching a global nuclear apocalypse in a situation when the US knows that Russia’s nuclear motivations, targets and objectives have nothing whatsoever to do with the US militarily.

On the other hand Europe just doesn’t have any symmetrical response - that simple.
So when, in this terrible sickening, but none the less realistic for that, scenario radioactive dust settles and smoke clears, the response from the US is gonna be.. yes CRICKETS. Well, of course there will be lots of howl of condemnation and lots of theatricals to show how firmly the US stands in solidarity, but all of those, of course, aren’t going to magically resurrect thousands of lives in Europe and restore the economic and political consequences of a century inflicted on Europe.

In my view this terrible risk to Europe is so clear and self-evident that it is not against logic at all to ask a question if this outcome - the economic destruction and geo-political weakening of Europe for decades to come - may be exactly one of the outcomes that the US WANTS, condones and approves at least in some of its planning scenarios and its spectrum of wider geo-political goals.

As I said in one of my previous articles, the whole goal in preconditioning, triggering and supporting the Russo-Ukrainian war was the Anglo-West, especially the US, deliberately leading the European West down the primrose path, weakening it, making it totally obedient and politico-economically dependent on the US for decades ahead (about the fundamental causes and US motivations behind the Russo-Ukrainian war see my views more in depth here: 
My little politics: US Goal In Designing And Fueling the Russo-Ukrainian War: IT IS ALL ABOUT EUROPE! (dr-world.blogspot.com )

All these considerations are no less applicable to Ukraine, but Ukraine’s agency in the present circumstances is really doubtful: in many ways the Ukrainian State, alas, is doing what it is expected to do by the collective West, mostly the Anglo-West.

Europe on the other hand still has both time and power and its own agency in actions and decisions to come to its senses and move away from this nuclear abyss, take a firm stance aimed at putting a PEACEFUL END through negotiations to the Ukrainian war, and refrain from its open participation in the proxy war against Russia (it’s not secret that there are two wars going on at once, one of which is the Russo-Ukrainian war and another one is the NATO proxy war with Russia).

Please, share, if deemed desirable.

No comments:

Post a Comment