Phil Mirzoev's blog

Sunday, December 11, 2011

Iran's nuclear weapon is inevitable: Israel must thank the US!

I am less than happy about Iran's nuclear program in the form it is now, BUT, unfortunately, as a rational man, I have to recognize the overwhelming probability that now nobody can prevent Iran from developing the enrichment process and getting all the ingredients to built its own nuclear explosive device. In my mind it's almost a forgone conclusion, though, I hasten to add, that it's not necessarily the main goal of the Iranian regime to construct an actual bomb. The main thing for them is to reach and demonstrate the absolute ability to built the bomb at will.
Also I have no doubts at all that the turning point in Iran's nuclear program and the huge window of opportunity Iran used for playing this card were created by Bush's government policy and actions (no matter deliberately or not), that's the US. After America got quite predictably bogged down into the unprecedentedly ugly, immoral and stupid war in Iraq while continuing to stay in Afghanistan (for reasons unknown too), there were no more factors left that could restrain Iran from going nuclear. This was rationally absolutely predictable and almost inevitable, and, in my view, therefore, the whole responsibility for any Iran's successes on this front must be FULLY placed on the US. In this sense Israel may say many many 'thanks' to its big friend for this 'help'. Furthermore, the very coming into power of radical Mahmoud Ahmadinejad could have been impossible without this 'performance' given by Bush on the Middle East stage. As is well known, before Ahmadinejad at the helm of Iran stood quite a moderate and incomparably more friendly and cultured Mohammad Khatami (who, by the way, mothballed the nuclear project). Of course the invasion of Iraq radicalized the Iranian society, giving such guys like Ahmadinejad a very good chance - a result, which cannot have been unpredicted (at least as a big possibility) by the White House.
Anyway, for now the technical and scientific potential of Iran at this stage of development and zero levers of the West to out pressure, in my mind, make Iran's becoming a nuclear state almost the inevitability. So one will have to live with that and build relations accordingly. All this fuss about Iran's threat to Israel or the US and, even more ridiculously, to Europe is, I am afraid, again is nothing more than a piece of very cheap, 20th century low standard demagoguery and propaganda.
Oh completely forgot, about DIPLOMATIC ways of preventing Iran from going nuclear and denuclearization of the Middle East : of course, it stands to reason and goes without saying, that Middle East should not have been nuclearized in the first place. In the 21th century, I hope, it is ridiculous even for a school boy to think that all those soulful, dear and 'highly moral' talks about preventing nuclear arms spread in the Middle East are just a kind of trite joke if in one package with it you don't discuss Israel with its illegal 200 nukes and one of the most powerful armies in the world (nonetheless additionally reinforced in the form of alliance by the most powerful army in the world - the US).
On the other hand, any strikes and military aggression against Iran will bring a chance that that country would be further radicalized and consider seriously using its technology for producing a real bomb. All those actions, be it on the part of Israel or the US, would mean really putting at (created) risk many people and many lives, and the responsibility for all the consequences of such, in my opinion CRIMINAL, gambling, would lie with those powers (that would start this harmful almost anti-humane, game).
That being said, there may be serious possibility to solve the 'nuclear' problem in theory: if - just assume for the sake of argument - the US gets serious about discussing Israel's nuclear arsenal and its denuclearization in the broad context together with Iran and all other countries in the Middle East. Such talk would be really an honest and adult attempt to start on the road to peace. But some 'inner voice' tells me (I hope it lies) that, though this fair and practicable way is obvious and workable, neither the US nor Israel will follow it in the foreseeable future, and the 20th century standard warmongering rhetoric will go on, further spoiling the international reputation and image of the US (you can't say anything about Israel's international reputation, if of course you don't place it alongside countries like Russia
In the meantime arguably the most dangerous nuclear country Pakistan - most dangerous not only of Israel, but for the whole of the world -remains among the friends and allies of America - America with whose tacit agreement, if not direct protection, Pakistan made this very nuclear weapon. Never ever did I hear that Israel tried at least to put some pressure on America in relation to its friendship with Pakistan. O no! Israel itself weaponizes Pakistan with great success. Don't tell me after that about Israeli and American governments caring about their peoples... Give me a break! Hah... the world and America's 'spoiled teenager' Israel would be by orders of magnitude more safe if America swapped around Pakistan and Iran, making the latter its strategic friend, and turning Pakistan into the 'bogeyman'. At least Iran has a sound control over all its territory, over its weapon arsenal and don't sponsor directly terrorists (which is such a characteristic feature of Pakistani governmental agencies). Iran in terms of its soundness and safety in comparison with America's beloved Pakistan can be seen as Belgium in comparison with Serbia in the times of Milosevic's rule.

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